Wednesday’s cattle complex closed weaker after a Turnaround Tuesday dead cat bounce. Live cattle futures ended the session with losses of $1.02 to $1.95. April closed 80 cents lower to now a ~23 cent discount to cash. Open interest was 5,379 contracts as of 4/20, before April rolls off the board on the 30th. The weekly FCE auction sold 1,517 of the 4,673 head listed, mostly at $120. Cash sales outside of the FCE were reported from $119 - $120 in the South. Northern dressed deals were light, but at $192 on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures closed with shaper losses reflecting their leg of the spread. Front month futures were down by at least $2.25 to as much as $3.17. The April 19 CME Feeder Cattle Index was another $1.65 weaker at $138.48.     

Ahead of Friday’s CoF report, analysts surveyed expect April 1 cattle on feed to be higher yr/yr, with the average estimate at 11.986m head, or plus 6.1%. Placements are expected to be above March ’20 by 33.7% on average. March marketings are estimated to have increased by 0.5% to 1.6% yr/yr, with the average of estimates for 2.032m head marketed. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher in the PM report, widening the Chc/Sel spread to $8.58. Choice boxes were $2.20 higher to $280.46. Select boxes ended the session $1.41 higher to $2.71.88. USDA estimates the week’s cattle slaughter at 360,000 head through Wednesday. That compares to 343,000 head from last week, and from 258,000 head LY – although the packer shutdowns were just beginning to show up in the data. 

Apr 21 Cattle  closed at $119.775, down $0.800,

Aug 21 Cattle  closed at $117.975, down $1.425,

Apr 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $135.100, down $2.475

May 21 Feeder Cattle  closed at $139.600, down $3.175